A month has passed since Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s self-imposed Aug. 7 deadline tobuckled in negotiations. In that time, the federal government has made little progress to secure funding for a and other critical relief programs to help fund struggling businesses, and widespread COVID testing.
So with the Republican skinny bill quashed, what comes next? Here are five scenarios that could play out.
A single large relief bill is back on the table
Formal talks for the overarching bill have yet to restart, but the Senate has returned from recess this week and the House of Representatives gets back to work next week, after up to $1.5 trillion while the Democrats have come down from their initial $3 trillion proposal to $2.2 trillion, so there has been incremental progress. (The failed skinny bill was estimated at between $300 billion and $650 billion.)during the break. The total cost of the bill is the root disagreement. The White House has hinted it could go
In a statement Thursday, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said, “Let’s not have a skinny bill when we have a massive problem.” White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said Tuesday, “I’m more optimistic today than I have been in a long time.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Wednesday he believes there’s a “good chance” a bipartisan COVID relief bill will pass.
In the lead up to November’s, the leadership’s coronavirus response is expected to take center stage during campaigning at all levels, increasing the political pressure to pass the next wave of aid.
Here, we present a speculative timeline of dates for when we could see a relief bill passed if talks do resume. It draws from Congressional voting schedules and the potential of postponing a planned recess or the House returning early to pass a bill.
When could the stimulus bill pass?
|Senate votes||House votes||President signs|
|Possible timeline if legislation passes in September||Sept. 22||Sept. 23||Sept. 24|
|Sept. 30||Oct. 1||Oct. 2|
|Oct. 6||Oct. 7||Oct. 8|
|Oct. 20||Oct. 21||Oct. 22|
Several small bills could pass instead
Called the Delivering Immediate Relief to America’s Families, Schools and Small Businesses Act, the Senate’s narrower proposal now will not become law. But it does suggest a path forward that delivers coronavirus aid in chunks, possibly sidestepping the partisan flare-ups that have plagued this new stimulus legislation, which has dragged on for over a month.
The House presented one of the first of these piecemeal bills seeking to provideahead of an in which many will likely be .
“Let’s do a more targeted bill now,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Sept. 6 in support of the GOP skinny bill. “If we need to do more in 30 days, we’ll continue to do more.”
Executive orders might be issued instead of, or in addition to, a bill
After talks originally collapsed on Aug. 7, President Donald Trump took unilateral action by signingon Aug. 8. It’s possible more executive actions are coming.
During a news conference last week,Trump said the administration might consider another executive action to release $300 billion in stimulus aid in an unused account for Americans, if Congress doesn’t vote to redirect those funds.
Trump’s current COVID-19 relief executive actions address , extending to a lesser degree and until next year.
Relief could go on hold until after the election
With the Nov. 3 election two months away, the atmosphere in Washington could be too politically charged to pass more economic relief bills, and leaders may want to see what happens after the election.
With 470 seats in the US Congress — 35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats — up for election in November, any change in majority to the House or Senate, and to the presidency itself, could shift the likelihood of certain laws being passed one way or another.
The government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic is already playing heavily in the campaign at all levels. If a deal isn’t reached soon, the topic of a relief package could very well come up during town halls or debates held in the coming weeks.
If no additional action is taken
Unemployment remains at staggeringly high levels and a on the horizon. If no action is taken on a relief package, individual bills or executive orders, it could potentially cause the economy to plunge into , as economists say the damage already done is beginning to mirror the Great Recession of the late 2000s.
For more information, here’sand what to know about the stimulus bill proposals that could help inform a final package.